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Initially, Trump gave the impression to take a firm approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "severe repercussions" during the summer if Putin carried on obstructing truce discussions, the former president finally enacted major restrictions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his war effort in the region.

However, via his latest comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly created by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has clearly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Aggression

Trump's plan would essentially favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite bold proclamations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively weaken that essential independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business background, Trump seems to view the war as a mere border issue, as if handing Putin a section of Ukraine's land will please the ruler. But, Putin's war is not only about occupying a damaged swath of deindustrialized territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's clear desire to weaken it so it no longer functions as an appealing standard for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Concessions

While keeping in status the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. Aside from favoring Russia with land that its military have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of fighting, this concession would leave Ukraine's defenses severely weakened.

The area is the site of the nation's well-known "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that are a key impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these positions, providing Putin a open way to Kyiv if he eventually decide to resume the war.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would facilitate renewed conflict simpler for the Russian military, Trump would mandate the nation to diminish the size of its military from their current large number personnel to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, Trump's plan places no such limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate leadership as extremists, the proposal states: "All Nazi doctrine and activities must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. However, Trump places no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

To be sure, the proposal has the Russian Federation commit not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has violated similar agreements in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for giving up its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a restoration of seized land in the region to the government – why should we have confidence in Putin this time?

That is why Ukraine has been so insistent on international security guarantees. Although the proposal warns of a "immediate coordinated armed reaction" if Russia restart its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics vary from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from restoring his diminished forces, rearming, and reinvading.

World Reaction

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "major, intentional, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. However in contrast to a capable national defense – the nation's best defense against additional hostilities – the success of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of Nato leaders, including Trump, to respond with force to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not